Humbled Netflix CEO still thinking, talking big

To hear Netflix CEO Reed Hastings tell it, the bone-headed decisions that have dragged down the Internet’s leading video subscription service during the past five months eventually will be forgotten like a bad movie made by a great film director.

Shaking off the stigma of a massive flop won’t be easy, a challenge Hastings acknowledged late Tuesday when he spoke at a UBS investor conference in New York. After his host mentioned the mystique surrounding Hastings as Netflix’s fortunes soared a year ago, Hastings quipped: “Now, it’s just pity.”

The self-deprecating humor prefaced a 45-minute treatise on why Hastings believes Netflix will overcome its recent adversity and remain at the forefront of a shift that increasingly will turn watching Internet-distributed video into one of the world’s most popular pastimes. This coming as high-speed connections, mobile devices and more sophisticated televisions become commonplace.

His long-term vision calls for Netflix to be selling Internet video subscriptions at prices starting at $8 per month in most markets outside of China.

“If you fundamentally believe Internet video will change the world in 20 years, we are the leading play on that basis,” Hastings boasted. He quickly added a caveat: “As long as we don’t shoot ourselves in the foot anymore.”

Hastings sounded like he intends to stick around to lead the way, despite questions about recent moves that triggered a customer backlash and a staggering decline in Netflix’s stock price that has wiped out three-fourths, or about $12.5 billion, of the company’s market value in five months. Netflix Inc. shares closed Tuesday at $68.14, down from a peak of nearly $305 in July when the company infuriated its U.S. subscribers by announcing plans to raise its prices by as much as 60 percent.

The sell-off has surprised and humbled Hastings, who revealed on stage that he had curtailed his sales of his Netflix holdings earlier this year because he was convinced the stock would quickly hit $1,000.

Hastings said his biggest mistake was trying to phase out Netflix’s once-trailblazing DVD-by-mail rental service more quickly than millions of customers wanted. He and his management team concluded a few years ago DVDs that are destined to obsolescence, so they began concentrating on streaming video over high-speed Internet connections. Ending Netflix’s practice of bundling DVD-by-mail and Internet streaming subscriptions together so people are forced to buy them separately was meant to push more households into weaning themselves from discs. Customers instead saw the move as a betrayal by a greedy company and canceled their subscriptions in droves.

“We became a sort of a Bank of America symbol, which is super unfortunate,” Hastings said Tuesday in comments monitored on a webcast. “We berate ourselves tremendously for that lack of insight because it didn’t need to be that way. But, you know, in three or five years, we aren’t going to remember it. It’s going to be: `Did we succeed at streaming?’ That’s all people are going to care about in three or five years. So we are not losing too much sleep over it. We are charging ahead.”

There’s damage to repair along the way.

Netflix entered October with 800,000 fewer U.S. subscribers than it had at the start of July, and the company has said there have been additional defections in the past two months, although the number hasn’t been quantified.

The result: Netflix isn’t bringing in as much money as it hoped to pay for an expansion in in Latin America and Great Britain and cover rising fees to license movies and TV shows for its video-streaming library. The shortfall will saddle it with a loss next year, the first time that has happened in a decade.

Hastings said he expects Netflix to enjoy robust subscriber growth next year, although he doubts the company will be able to match its performance during the first six months of this year when it added nearly 5 million subscribers. Virtually of the company’s future growth is expected to come from streaming-only subscriptions.

“DVD will do whatever it will do,” Hastings said. “We are not going to hurt it, but we aren’t putting a lot of time and energy into it.”

Netflix ended September with 25.3 million subscribers worldwide, including 23.8 million in the U.S. Nearly 14 million of the U.S subscriptions included a DVD-by-mail plan.

To ensure it will have enough money to finance its ambitions, Netflix recently raised $400 million by issuing convertible debt to one of its major stockholders and selling 2.86 million discounted shares. That stock sale further irritated investors because Netflix spent nearly $200 million buying back 900,000 shares of its stock at an average price of $218 during the first nine months of the year.

Hastings said Netflix probably could have gotten by without the extra money, but he decided to raise the extra cash to avoid a “crisis of confidence” among the company’s suppliers, including movie and TV studios that license their video and sell their DVDs to the company.

Increasing competition is another major concern hanging over Netflix. Amazon.com Inc., Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Dish Network Corp. are already offering subscription packages that include Internet video. Verizon Communication Inc. declined to comment on reports it may also enter the market.

Hastings said he doubted Verizon will make much of a dent unless it is prepared to pay between $1 billion and $2 billion annually to obtain the rights to professionally produced video. Right now, Hasting said, only Netflix and Time Warner Inc.’s HBO pay channel have made that kind of commitment.

“If they are not willing to invest at those levels, it pretty hard to compete with us or HBO,” Hastings said. He went a step further, branding HBO as Netflix’s biggest rival now that the channel as expanded beyond cable TV with an on-the-go application for Apple Inc.’s iPhone and iPad, as well as devices running on Google Inc.’s Android software. The app is free, but viewing content on the devices still requires an HBO cable subscription.

“It will be a little bit of an arms race with us,” Hastings said of HBO. “Hopefully, we will end up both creating amazing consumer experiences and end up pushing the bar in a positive way for each other.”

 

 

Netflix is reviving axed ‘Arrested Development’

“Arrested Development” is coming back to life on the Netflix video streaming service.

The quirky TV comedy series is resuming production and will be available for instant viewing by Netflix subscribers in 2013, the company announced late Friday. “Arrested Development” aired on Fox for three seasons from 2003 to 2006.

The Emmy-winning show focused on the formerly wealthy Bluth family and featured Jason Bateman, Will Arnett, Portia de Rossi, Michael Cera and Jeffrey Tambor in its cast. Netflix didn’t specify which original cast members might be returning or say how many new episodes were planned.

Twentieth Century Fox Television and Imagine Television will produce these new episodes for the online subscription service, reviving the series five years after the Fox broadcast network pulled the plug.

Imagine Entertainment co-founders Ron Howard and Brian Grazer noted that bringing a series back from cancellation almost never happens.

“But then, `Arrested’ always was about as unconventional as they get, so it seems totally appropriate that this show that broke the mold is smashing it to pieces once again,” they said.

Earlier this year, Netflix announced that “House of Cards,” a new political drama starring Kevin Spacey, will be produced for viewing on the service in 2012.

 

 

Higher Netflix prices equals fewer subscribers

Netflix’s decision to raise prices by as much as 60 percent is turning into a horror show.

The customer backlash against the higher rates, kicking in this month, has been much harsher than Netflix Inc. anticipated. That prompted management to predict Thursday that the company -the largest U.S. video subscription service- will end September with 600,000 fewer U.S. customers than it had in June.

It will mark just the second time in 12 years that Netflix has lost subscribers from one quarter to the next. The last downturn occurred during 2007 when Netflix lost a mere 55,000 from March through June.

The current hemorrhaging exacerbated fears that Netflix is losing the magic touch that increased its stock 10-fold in the three years leading up to the company’s July 12 announcement about its higher prices.

Since then, Netflix has turned into Wall Street’s equivalent of a box-office flop. Its shares plunged $39.46, or about 19 percent, to close at $169.25 on Thursday, leaving Netflix’s stock price more than 40 percent below where it stood before the company unveiled the higher prices. The cost to shareholders so far: more than $6 billion in paper losses.

It could get uglier if the worst-case scenarios play out. Netflix suffered another setback earlier this month when Starz Entertainment ended talks to renew the licensing rights to a key part of Netflix’s video library for streaming over the Internet. The fallout from that decision will hit in March when Netflix will no longer be able to stream the popular mix of recently released movies and TV shows that it got from Starz, raising the specter of another onslaught of customer defections.

“Netflix isn’t looking like it’s as good a deal because their prices are getting higher and their content isn’t getting any better,” said Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter, who thinks the company’s shares could fall as low as $110. “It’s like they have taken the beef away from the buffet.”

The customer exodus still hasn’t convinced Netflix to reverse its course and lower its prices as it did in 2007 when it was engaged in a cut-throat battle with Blockbuster Inc. In announcing its lowered subscriber forecasts Thursday, Netflix emphasized it consider its new prices to be “the right long-term strategic choice.”

The new pricing structure was driven by Netflix’s desire to build up its service that streams video over high-speed Internet connections, even at the risk of hurting the DVD-by-mail rentals that used to be its main business. Netflix management believes the convenience of Internet video is the main reason that it has added 17 million U.S. subscribers during the past three years, establishing the company as a major player in the entertainment industry.

As the streaming service took off, Hollywood studios and other video distributors such as Starz have been demanding higher fees for the licensing rights to their content – a trend that caused Netflix to dig deeper into its subscribers’ wallets.

Even with fewer subscribers, Netflix expects to bring in $10 million to $25 million more from its customers than during the July-September period than it did April-June.

Netflix revenue won’t keep rising, though, if more subscribers flee. Pachter thinks that could still happen because some customers won’t be billed at the higher rates until the end of the month.

Besides being more expensive, Netflix’s new pricing structure is also more complicated for subscribers who want to stream and rent DVDs from the service.

Until Sept. 1, Netflix offered plans that bundled DVD rentals and unlimited video streaming for as little as $10 per month. Those options are now sold separately, resulting in a cost of at least $16 per month for people who want streaming and DVDs. Having both choices is appealing because Netflix’s streaming library primarily consists of old TV shows and movies, leaving DVDs as the main way to see recently released films.

To hold down costs in a tough economy, millions of Netflix customers are either limiting their subscriptions to a streaming-only or DVD-only plan. Other customers are canceling their accounts to protest the new pricing scheme. Those canceling are following through on threats that were made on Facebook and Netflix’s own blog after the higher prices were announced.

Despite the vitriolic reaction, Netflix CEO Reed Hastings still thought the company would be able to add subscribers. In late July, he issued a forecast that indicated Netflix would end September with 25 million U.S. subscribers, up from 24.6 million in June. That prediction was lowered Thursday to 24 million. The revision mostly reflects Netflix’s expectation that it will have 800,000 fewer DVD-only subscribers than it previously thought.

Many of the people no longer renting DVDs from Netflix will get their discs elsewhere. That could be a boon for Redbox, which rents DVDs for $1 per night through 33,330 kiosks in supermarkets and other retailers, and Blockbuster, which still has 1,500 U.S. stores after emerging from bankruptcy protection under the ownership of Dish Network Corp. Investors are betting Redbox will be the main beneficiary; the shares of Redbox owner Coinstar surged $3.33, or more than 7 percent, to close at $48.55 on Thursday. Dish Network’s shares edged up 11 cents to $25.82.

This could be an opportune time for would-be rivals to attack Netflix’s streaming service too, BTIG Research analyst Richard Greenfield wrote in a Thursday blog post. Internet retailer Amazon.com Inc. launched a free streaming service for subscribers to its two-day shipping service earlier this year. Greenfield and other analysts believe Google Inc., already the owner of YouTube, is eager to expand its Internet video offerings to include more movies. One way Google could achieve that would be to buy Hulu.com, which has been put up by for sale by the television network owners that supply its video content.

“Netflix made a bad move, raising prices as much as they did,” Pachter said.

Netflix stock falls as talks on Starz deal unravel

Netflix’s negotiations to keep a key piece of its Internet video library have collapsed, dealing a major blow to the largest U.S. video subscription service as it raises the prices for most of its 25 million customers. The setback triggered a nearly 9 percent drop in Netflix Inc.’s stock price.

Starz Entertainment delivered the bad news Thursday in a terse statement announcing that it won’t renew a contract that allows Netflix to show a lineup of recently released movies and TV shows over high-speed Internet connections.

That means Starz content will be removed from Netflix’s streaming service starting in March. Starz’ library includes movies from Walt Disney Co.’s assorted studios and, until recently, Sony Corp.

The talks fell apart after the two sides disagreed over the value of the Starz content and how it should be sold to Netflix subscribers, according to people familiar with the negotiations. The people asked not to be identified because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly.

The content from Starz’ cable TV channel played an instrumental role in increasing usage of Netflix’s Internet service and helped Netflix add nearly 17 million subscribers since the deal was signed in October 2008.

That growth probably wouldn’t have happened without the boost that the Starz deal gave to Netflix streaming, said Janney Montgomery Scott analyst Tony Wible.

“What created (Netflix’s success in streaming) is frankly, initially getting Starz, getting that content, which got you more subscribers, which allowed you to buy more content,” Wible said. “The virtuous cycle that has made Netflix what it is could work against it. If you lose content, you lose subscribers; … it could be a downward spiral from here.”

Netflix had been expected to work out a new contract with Starz, although at a much higher price than the estimated $30 million a year that it had been paying under the current agreement. Netflix CEO Reed Hastings acknowledged earlier this year that the company might have to pay as much as $250 million a year to retain the Starz rights when the current contract expires in February.

But those hopes were dashed, if not blown up completely, with Thursday’s bombshell dropped by Starz CEO Chris Albrecht.

The timing of the announcement was seen a way to kick Netflix in the shins at a particularly vulnerable time. It came on the first day of a new Netflix pricing system that will hit U.S. subscribers with price increase of as much as 60 percent if they want to continue to get DVD rentals through the mail along with unlimited streaming of Internet video. The new pricing system has incensed a large group of Netflix subscribers who have threatened to cancel their accounts, a backlash that could intensify if it looks like Netflix’s streaming library is becoming less attractive.

Albrecht said Starz had decided against a renewal “to protect the premium nature of our brand by preserving the appropriate pricing and packaging of our exclusive and highly valuable content.”

The contract renewal talks broke down when Netflix refused to meet demands that could have driven up the annual licensing rights to $300 million or more, according to one person familiar with the negotiations.

A major sticking point arose when Starz insisted its content be corralled on a higher-price tier, another person said. Instead of making their content available to any Netflix subscriber paying just $8 per month, Starz executives wanted viewership limited to people paying at least $16 per month for a package that bundles DVD rentals with Internet video.

That stipulation was seen as a way to preserve Starz’ relationship with cable and satellite TV distributors, who include Starz in channel packages that cost far more than the $8 monthly fee for Netflix streaming. Albrecht said Starz, part of Liberty Media Corp., is in an “excellent position” to make more money from other sources besides Netflix.

Netflix tried to downplay the possible loss of the Starz relationship. The company, which is based in Los Gatos, Calif., said it would spend the $250 million that Hastings had earmarked for the Starz renewal to buy audience-pleasing content from other distributors. Hastings has left no doubt that he intends to invest heavily in Netflix’s Internet video library because he wants more subscribers to use that option. That would allow Netflix to cut postage and other costs to mail DVD rentals to its customers.

As it is, Starz has become less important to Netflix as the service expanded its streaming rights. In June, Sony also stopped allowing its movies, which include “Easy A” and “Grown Ups,” to part of Starz streaming in June. Those factors have reduced Starz’s share of Netflix streaming viewership in the U.S. to 8 percent, according to Netflix.

The rising cost for Internet streaming rights is one of the reasons that Netflix raised its prices for people who want to rent DVDs through the mail and stream video. The changes don’t affect customers who subscribe to the streaming-only plan.

Starz’s decision to end the talks with Netflix underscores the escalating tensions with pay-TV services that view Netflix’s popularity as a competitive threat. Time Warner Inc.’s HBO has consistently refused to license its shows for Netflix streaming, and Showtime recently has declined to make some of its top series, including “Dexter” and “Californication” available to the service.

Morningstar analyst Michael Corty said he thinks Netflix can salvage the Starz deal, given there is still six months before the current contract expires. To do that, Netflix will likely have to pay even more than it intended because Starz appears to have more negotiating leverage, Corty said.

Although Albrecht’s statement made it sound as if there is little chance of a new deal, Netflix left the door open.

“We have tremendous respect for the Starz creative team, and we look forward to someday licensing some of their original or licensed content,” Netflix said in a statement.

The falling out with Starz added to the worries of Netflix investors already fretting about the higher prices driving away subscribers. Netflix’s stock plunged $19.97 to $213.30 in extended trading Thursday, after the announcement by Starz.